Forecasting elections in Turkey

Toros E.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, cilt.27, sa.4, ss.1248-1258, 2011 (SSCI) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 27 Sayı: 4
  • Basım Tarihi: 2011
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.01.002
  • Dergi Adı: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1248-1258
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Elections, Forecasting, Turkey, Turkish political parties, VOTE, SYSTEM, IMPACT
  • Hacettepe Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This paper proposes a model for forecasting elections in Turkey. In doing so, this study is based on three theoretical premises: first, that the voters reward or punish parties according to their performances relative to the macroeconomic conditions; second, that the popularity of the political parties in Turkey are closely connected to their performances in local elections; and third, that the centre-periphery distinction affects the fortunes of the political parties in Turkey. The contribution of this analysis is the introduction of an explicit model on which can forecast the impact of economic and political variables on the elections in Turkey by using reliable, public and macro level data. Our findings show that the dynamics of the evaluation of political parties in Turkey follow a similar pattern to those of contemporary democracies, being driven by both economic and political factors.