Assessing the impact of climate change on summertime tropospheric ozone in the Eastern Mediterranean: Insights from meteorological and air quality modeling

Rezaei R., GÜLLÜ G., Ünal A.

ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, 2025 (SCI-Expanded) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Publication Date: 2025
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121036
  • Journal Name: ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, PASCAL, Aerospace Database, Applied Science & Technology Source, Aqualine, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), Artic & Antarctic Regions, BIOSIS, CAB Abstracts, Chemical Abstracts Core, Chimica, Communication Abstracts, Compendex, Computer & Applied Sciences, EMBASE, Environment Index, Geobase, Greenfile, INSPEC, Metadex, Pollution Abstracts, Public Affairs Index, Veterinary Science Database, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Hacettepe University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

This study evaluates the impact of climate change on tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations in the Eastern Mediterranean using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models. Simulations were conducted for a historical period (2012) and a future projection (2053) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Anthropogenic emissions were sourced from the EMEP/EEA inventory, while biogenic emissions were calculated using the MEGAN model. Model performance evaluations yielded R2 (RMSE) values of 0.71-0.85 (3.33-4.9) for WRF and 0.58 (8.35) for CMAQ, indicating reasonable predictive accuracy. Under SSP5-8.5 (SSP2-4.5), the WRF model projects an average summertime temperature increase of 1.6 degrees C (1.2 degrees C) and a significant decline in precipitation across the Eastern Mediterranean. Air quality simulations show a regional increase in summertime O3 concentrations by 3.5 ppb (3.0 ppb) under SSP5-8.5 (SSP2-4.5), with the most pronounced increases occurring in the southeast. Conversely, a significant reduction in O3 concentrations is observed over the Marmara Sea and parts of Istanbul in both scenarios. This reduction is attributed to climate- induced processes, including accelerated O3 photolysis in moist conditions and enhanced O3 consumption by NOx in the NOx-saturated regime of the Marmara Sea region. Additionally, analyses reveal a significant increase in O3 levels in Istanbul under SSP5-8.5, while Bursa shows notable increases under both scenarios. These findings underscore the need for targeted emission control measures to mitigate future O3 pollution in the region.