Forecasting hazardous waste in Türkiye: a data-driven approach using European panel data
International Journal of Environment and Waste Management, cilt.40, sa.4, ss.409-428, 2026 (ESCI, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 40 Sayı: 4
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1504/ijewm.2026.155918
- Dergi Adı: International Journal of Environment and Waste Management
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), Scopus, Compendex, INSPEC
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.409-428
- Anahtar Kelimeler: European data, forecasting, hazardous waste, industrial indicators, model, socio-economic indicators, Türkiye
- Hacettepe Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Accurate forecasting of hazardous waste (HW) generation is essential for effective environmental management, particularly in rapidly developing countries like Türkiye. This study presents a predictive modelling framework developed using socio-economic and industrial indicators - population, gross domestic product (GDP), industrial production, municipal waste generation, and tertiary education levels - drawn from a panel dataset of ten European countries. Seven models were developed in STATGRAPHICS using regression analyses to estimate Türkiye's HW quantities without national data. Among these, model 6, based on log-transformed variables, exhibited the best performance, yielding the lowest error values (MAE = 0.156, RMSE = 0.199). The model was validated by comparing results with TurkStat data, showing a strong alignment (79%-87%) in years unaffected by external waste imports. The findings highlight population and industrial production as main predictors and suggest considering international waste trade. The approach offers a useful tool for policymaking in Türkiye and similar data-limited contexts.