A dual-framework approach to regional flood susceptibility: coupling frequency ratio with logistic regression in Tokat, Türkiye
Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, cilt.17, sa.1, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 17 Sayı: 1
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1080/19475705.2026.2710507
- Dergi Adı: Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Aerospace Database, CAB Abstracts, Compendex, Environment Index, Directory of Open Access Journals, Academic Search Ultimate (EBSCO), Natural Science Collection (ProQuest), Biological Science Database (ProQuest), Earth, Atmospheric, & Aquatic Science Collection (ProQuest), Materials Science & Engineering Collection (ProQuest), Technology Collection (ProQuest)
- Anahtar Kelimeler: DRR, flood, frequency ratio, logistic regression, susceptibility
- Hacettepe Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Flood susceptibility mapping is a key tool for disaster risk reduction (DRR), particularly in regions exposed to recurrent flooding. This study presents a GIS-based regional flood susceptibility assessment for Tokat Province in the Central Black Sea region of Türkiye. A dual statistical framework combining a modified frequency ratio (FR) approach and logistic regression (LR) was used to evaluate flood proneness. An inventory of 142 historical flood locations was integrated with ten conditioning factors. Conventional FR values were transformed into normalized flood susceptibility indices and then used as inputs for LR modeling to assess multivariate effects. Model performance was evaluated using ROC and Kappa metrics. ROC–AUC results showed satisfactory predictive performance for both models, with LR demonstrating stronger discrimination (AUC = 0.84) than the FR-based model (AUC = 0.79). However, at the fixed 0.5 threshold, the FR-based model produced more stable categorical performance (Kappa = 0.43; accuracy = 0.71), whereas the lower Kappa and accuracy of LR mainly reflected the asymmetric distribution of predicted probabilities. The findings provide valuable insights for spatial planning, risk mitigation strategies, and regional-scale disaster management. Considering population and settlement characteristics of the region, flood hazard and risk assessments should be initiated urgently across the province.