An integrated environmental risk assessment framework for coal-fired power plants: A fuzzy logic approach


RISK ANALYSIS, vol.43, no.3, pp.530-547, 2023 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 43 Issue: 3
  • Publication Date: 2023
  • Doi Number: 10.1111/risa.13908
  • Journal Name: RISK ANALYSIS
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, PASCAL, ABI/INFORM, Agricultural & Environmental Science Database, Aqualine, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), Business Source Elite, Business Source Premier, CAB Abstracts, Compendex, EMBASE, Environment Index, Food Science & Technology Abstracts, Geobase, INSPEC, MEDLINE, PAIS International, Political Science Complete, Pollution Abstracts, Psycinfo, Public Administration Abstracts, Public Affairs Index, Sociological abstracts, SportDiscus, Veterinary Science Database, Worldwide Political Science Abstracts, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Page Numbers: pp.530-547
  • Keywords: coal-fired power plant, environmental monitoring, environmental risk index, fuzzy logic, turkey, STOCHASTIC MODELING APPROACH, ELECTRICITY-GENERATION, HYDROPOWER PLANTS, NUCLEAR-POWER, FLY-ASH, EMISSIONS, IMPACT, UNCERTAINTY, POLLUTION, TECHNOLOGIES
  • Hacettepe University Affiliated: Yes


This study quantifies the environmental risk of a coal-fired thermal power plant during operation by using environmental monitoring data, site surveys, and documented evidence. The following criteria are assessed: emissions (CO, SO2, NOx, PM10), impact on aquatic ecosystem (fish protection at cooling water intake and cooling water discharge temperature), and waste management (fly ash and bottom ash). Fuzzy sets were defined for each criterion, taking environmental regulatory context as an expert judgment. A survey was conducted with multiple stakeholders to determine the relative importance of risk factors. The survey results showed that the most concerned risks are SO2 and NOx emissions. The proposed method estimates the risk of each environmental criterion separately and then accumulates them into an environmental risk index (ERI). Accordingly, we assessed the Catalagzi coal-fired power plant, which has been in operation on the Black Sea coast in northwestern Turkey. For this case study, the ERI resulted in a value of 0.78 (on a scale of 0-1), showing high environmental risk to the facility. Moreover, the applicability of the proposed framework was tested in several existing coal-fired power plants using simultaneous measurements. All studied coal-fired power plants in Turkey have unacceptable pollutants (PM10, SO2, and NOx) concentration levels indicating high health risk potential. The application of the integrated environmental risk assessment framework showed that new environmental regulations are needed in Turkey to specify more strict emission limits and to monitor CO2, fine particulate matter emissions, cooling water discharge, and fish protection at cooling water intake.