Design and implementation of the fuzzy expert system in Monte Carlo methods for fuzzy linear regression


İÇEN D. , GÜNAY S.

APPLIED SOFT COMPUTING, cilt.77, ss.399-411, 2019 (SCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi) identifier identifier

  • Cilt numarası: 77
  • Basım Tarihi: 2019
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.asoc.2019.01.029
  • Dergi Adı: APPLIED SOFT COMPUTING
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.399-411

Özet

In this study, fuzzy expert system (FES) in Monte Carlo (MC) method, which is used for estimating fuzzy linear regression model (FLRM) parameters, is applied to determine the parameter intervals, for the first time in the literature. MC method in estimating FLRM parameters is a new field of study that is very useful and time saving. However a major problem might occur in determining the parameter intervals from which the regression model parameters are supposed to come. If the intervals are calculated too large, FLRM error will be very large. Accordingly, the actual model parameters will not be obtained if the intervals are calculated too narrow. This drawback has not been addressed in the literature before and only optimization methods have been applied to achieve the best interval values. In this article, the FES is used for the first time in order to solve the problem in parameter estimation process for the FLRM in the field of statistics. For this purpose, the difference between the fuzzy observation value and fuzzy estimation value's support set (W) is taken into account. The most appropriate intervals calculated for the parameters are those that make W as small as possible. Thus, FES is designed to determine the best intervals for the model parameters. The system knowledge base is composed of 7 fuzzy rules. As a result, it is deduced that the FLRM parameter estimates obtained from the MC method using FES are very close to the real values. The real impact of this paper will be in showing the applicability of FESs in order to solve problems that we encounter in the field of statistics by the help of linguistic expressions. Moreover, these outcomes will be useful for enriching the studies that have already focused on FLRMs and will encourage researchers to use FES to solve problems in statistics. To sum up, this study demonstrates that FESs which is used in technological devices and makes our lives easier can also be used in solving problems that we confront in the field of statistics efficiently with using linguistic expressions like human inference system. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.