Long term characterization of the vehicle stock in Turkey


AYDINALP KÖKSAL M., Tekeli S. E. , Aksoy S., Kiziltan A., KIZILTAN M., Duran N., ...More

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART D-TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT, vol.99, 2021 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 99
  • Publication Date: 2021
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.trd.2021.102988
  • Journal Name: TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART D-TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, PASCAL, Aerospace Database, Applied Science & Technology Source, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), Business Source Elite, Business Source Premier, Communication Abstracts, Compendex, Computer & Applied Sciences, EconLit, Environment Index, Geobase, INSPEC, Metadex, Pollution Abstracts, Public Affairs Index, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Keywords: Registered Vehicle Forecast, Scrapped Vehicles Predictions, Automobile, ARMA, Turkey, CO2 EMISSIONS, SALES, DEMAND, PROJECTIONS, MANDATE
  • Hacettepe University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

Projections of vehicle profiles play an essential role in developing government policies for emissions reductions in the automotive sector. Determining the trends of key parameters related to tailpipe emissions is critical for analyzing the adverse effects of vehicle emissions on air quality. This study presents a framework that can be used to assess the impacts of the vehicle fleet characteristics on pollutant emissions. Passenger cars and light commercial category vehicles in the Turkish vehicle fleet are analyzed in terms of size (sales and scrappage rates), age distribution, fuel type, engine displacement, and mileage. The distributions based on these parameters are forecasted for the 2020-2030 period under five alternative policy scenarios for Turkey. Should no scrappage incentives be imposed, the average vehicle age is estimated to increase significantly, and shares of hybrid and electric vehicles will be minor.