Parametric and non-parametric estimation of extreme earthquake event: the joint tail inference for mainshocks and aftershocks

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EXTREMES, vol.24, no.2, pp.199-214, 2021 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 24 Issue: 2
  • Publication Date: 2021
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s10687-020-00400-4
  • Journal Name: EXTREMES
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, ABI/INFORM, Aerospace Database, Applied Science & Technology Source, Business Source Elite, Business Source Premier, Communication Abstracts, Computer & Applied Sciences, MathSciNet, Metadex, zbMATH, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Page Numbers: pp.199-214
  • Keywords: Bivariate extreme value theory, Earthquake data, Tail probability, Mainshock, Aftershock, ANATOLIAN FAULT, DEPENDENCE, TURKEY, MAGNITUDE, SEQUENCE, IZMIT
  • Hacettepe University Affiliated: Yes


In an earthquake event, the combination of a strong mainshock and damaging aftershocks is often the cause of severe structural damages and/or high death tolls. The objective of this paper is to provide estimation for the probability of such extreme events where the mainshock and the largest aftershocks exceed certain thresholds. Two approaches are illustrated and compared - a parametric approach based on previously observed stochastic laws in earthquake data, and a non-parametric approach based on bivariate extreme value theory. We analyze the earthquake data from the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in Turkey during 1965-2018 and show that the two approaches provide unifying results.