Cohort fertility heterogeneity during the fertility decline period in Turkey

Keskin F., Çavlin A.

Journal of biosocial science, vol.55, no.4, pp.779-794, 2023 (SSCI) identifier identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 55 Issue: 4
  • Publication Date: 2023
  • Doi Number: 10.1017/s0021932022000268
  • Journal Name: Journal of biosocial science
  • Journal Indexes: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, Periodicals Index Online, Anthropological Literature, BIOSIS, CAB Abstracts, CINAHL, Gender Studies Database, Index Islamicus, Psycinfo, Social services abstracts, Sociological abstracts, Veterinary Science Database
  • Page Numbers: pp.779-794
  • Keywords: Fertility, Heterogeneity, Turkey, Birth History
  • Hacettepe University Affiliated: Yes


The decline in fertility, rapid urbanization and the increase in women's education levels in Turkey are simultaneous transformations. The coexistence and interaction of these transformations is the focal point for the interpretation of fertility trajectories in Turkey. This article explores Turkey's heterogeneous fertility structure by examining the fertility trajectories of women between 1949 and 1978 cohorts. It also examines changes in these trajectories in light of Turkey's fertility decline and interprets those changes through comparisons of women whose fertility behaviors are similar. Using three waves (1998, 2008 and 2018) of the Turkey Demographic and Health Survey data, we employed sequence analysis to calculate fertility trajectories and form clusters from these trajectories. The background similarities of women in the same fertility clusters were investigated with distance analysis, and we calculated predicted probabilities from multinomial logistic regression results and predicted cluster membership. The heterogeneous nature of fertility in Turkey during the demographic transition period shaped the transition process and it can be predicted that such heterogeneity will shape post-transition fertility. The behavior of having two children became the norm during this period, and greater spacing between births or even stopping after the first child became a preferred option among educated women who grew up in cities. For women who grew up in rural areas and uneducated women, we observed a transition from higher parities to three-norm.