Research Information System
Reproductive BioMedicine Online, vol.52, no.2, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
Research question: What is the fiscal impact of IVF-born singletons in Turkey stratified by maternal age group? Design: A generational accounting framework was applied to quantify lifetime fiscal interactions between individuals – conceived naturally or using IVF – and the government. Demographic data for a individual born in 2022 were used, assuming a 77-year lifespan divided into seven life stages. Government expenditures (education, healthcare, child benefits, pensions), and individual tax contributions were modelled under a constant 1.93% labour productivity growth rate and a 1.8% discount rate, reflecting Turkey's actuarial interest assumptions. The cost and success rates of IVF were calculated using data from a single private IVF centre. The lifetime net tax contribution of IVF- or naturally conceived individuals was then estimated across maternal age strata: 20–25, 26–30, 31–35, 36–38, 39–40 and 41–42 years. The break-even age at which net tax contributions become positive was also calculated. Results: The average cost of achieving a live birth was (US)$3785. The average discounted lifetime net tax contribution of an IVF-born individual was $1651. The respective figure for a naturally conceived individual was $5436. The average fiscal break-even age was 40 (range 40–44) years for IVF-born individuals, but 38 years for naturally conceived individuals. The cost of IVF increases with advancing age, resulting in a negative fiscal balance beyond the maternal age of 38 years. Conclusions: IVF represents a sound long-term fiscal investment, supporting the expansion of public funding for fertility treatment. The results also highlight the importance of female age, as cost-effectiveness declines with increased cycle requirements.