Research Information System
Open Economies Review, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus)
This paper examines the spillover effects of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policies on Türkiye, providing broader lessons for emerging markets. We explore the distinct impacts of three dimensions of monetary policy: interest rate changes, forward guidance, and quantitative easing (QE), on key financial and macroeconomic variables in Türkiye by applying a Bayesian VAR model. Our findings reveal that while both the Fed’s and the ECB’s policies influence Türkiye’s economy, the U.S. monetary policy generally produces larger and more persistent effects. The results also indicate that the transmission of monetary policy shocks from the Fed and ECB to Türkiye differs across various policy instruments. While interest rate changes primarily affect financial variables, forward guidance and QE shocks appear to have a greater effect on output and inflation. These findings underscore the heterogeneity of monetary policy spillovers and highlight the importance for emerging market policymakers of closely monitoring advanced economy policy shifts to safeguard financial stability and support economic growth.