Estimation of Large Household Appliances Stock in the Residential Sector and Forecasting of Stock Electricity Consumption: Ex-Post and Ex-Ante Analyses


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DÜZGÜN B., BAYINDIR R., KÖKSAL M. A.

Gazi Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi Part C: Tasarım ve Teknoloji, cilt.9, sa.2, ss.182-199, 2021 (Hakemli Dergi) identifier

Özet

Energy efficiency offers a wide variety of opportunities that will provide efficient resourceutilization, alleviate the pressure of energy costs on the economy and reduce foreign energydependency, and support in combating the harmful effects of climate change. This paper aims todevelop necessary data sets to guide policymakers in their decision-making process to identifyenergy efficiency policy options through an ex-post analysis. One of the targets of this paper isto determine the large household appliances stock and its electricity consumption, whichconstitutes an important share in residential electricity consumption over the period of 2005-2019. In light of the findings from the ex-post analysis, electricity consumption scenarios forlarge household appliances were developed from 2020 to 2030. According to the results, thetotal stock consumption of the refrigerator and washing machine appliances has reached aplateau, leaving behind an increasing trend due to the improvements in efficiency despite thegrowth in the stock amounts. Besides, the electricity consumption of freezer, tumble dryer, anddishwasher stock has increased significantly due to the increase in the household ownershiprates. The analyses also showed that the total electricity consumption of the large householdappliances’ stock increased from 17,973 GWh in 2005 to 23,067 GWh in 2019. In addition, theex-ante analysis revealed that the electricity consumption of refrigerator stock would show mostlikely a downward trend until 2030, while deep freezers, tumble dryers, dishwashers, andelectric ovens stocks would demand more electricity with the increase in ownership rates.However, the analysis showed an uncertain pathway for the electricity consumption of washingmachine stock since annual sales during the projection period would show in which directiontheir consumption would evolve.