Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
INSECT CONSERVATION AND DIVERSITY, cilt.1, sa.1, ss.1-18, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
1. Climate change poses substantial threats to biodiversity in ecologically transitional
regions, making the identification of potential climate refugia for vulnerable insect
taxa essential for conservation planning. Here, we provide the first multi-species
assessment of climate-driven suitable habitats shifts for Meloidae beetles in the
Inner Western Anatolia sub-region of Türkiye.
2. We modelled the current and future distributions of eight ecologically diverse
Meloidae species using ecological niche models (ENMs) based on bioclimatic, topographic and land-cover predictors under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).
3. Our projections revealed highly heterogeneous responses among species; widespread taxa like Mylabris variabilis exhibited potential for elevational shifts within
the study area, whereas Alosimus chalybaeus faced severe range contractions, particularly under the high-emission scenario.
4. Overlay analyses identified mountain systems such as Domaniç, Egrigöz and Murat
as robust multi-species refugia likely to retain climatic suitability under both future
scenarios, though other high-elevation systems lost this buffering capacity under
severe warming.
5. Critically, we address the paradox that many predicted refugia are currently dominated by dense forests unsuitable for these heliophilic, open-habitat beetles, arguing that their future suitability is contingent on climate-driven vegetation shifts—
such as increased wildfire and pest outbreaks—that can convert closed-canopy forests into favourable open habitats.
6. Despite limitations inherent to ENMs, our findings offer a spatially explicit framework for identifying and prioritizing conservation areas, underscoring the necessity
of integrating future ecosystem dynamics into climate change refugia planning.