An empirical analysis on the effects of elections on the public expenditure composition: The case of Turkey

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Balcı D., Cavusoglu T.

AMME IDARESI DERGISI, vol.51, no.2, pp.53-85, 2018 (SSCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 51 Issue: 2
  • Publication Date: 2018
  • Journal Indexes: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Page Numbers: pp.53-85
  • Hacettepe University Affiliated: Yes


This study aims to analyze the effects of elections on the composition of the public expenditure in Turkey empirically within the scope of the political-budget-cycles theory. This study differs from similiar studies with respect to four basic characteristics. First of all, the analyses cover the 1965–2004 time period, which is a forty-year long period that includes ten general elections. Secondly, in the analyses, the differentiation between predetermined and endogenous elections is taken into consideration. Thirdly, the analyses are carried out not only for general elections, but for local elections as well. Lastly, the cointegration and the vector error correction model approaches are used in the analyses, which enable the analysis of both the short- and long-run dynamics of public expenditures. According to results obtained in the study, both general and local elections affect the composition of the public expenditure in Turkey. This effect lends itself in current and transfer expenditures during general election periods, whereas in investment and transfer expenditures during local election periods.