Artificial intelligence method to predict overall survival of hepatocellular carcinoma

ŞİMŞEK C., GÜVEN D. C., Sahin T. K., TEKİN İ. E., Sahan O., BALABAN H. Y., ...More

Hepatology Forum, vol.2, no.2, pp.64-68, 2021 (Scopus) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 2 Issue: 2
  • Publication Date: 2021
  • Doi Number: 10.14744/hf.2021.2021.0017
  • Journal Name: Hepatology Forum
  • Journal Indexes: Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.64-68
  • Keywords: Artificial intelligence, hepatocellular carcinoma, survival
  • Hacettepe University Affiliated: Yes


Background and Aim: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a complex disease with heterogenous outcomes influenced by disease-and patient-related factors. The prediction of outcomes requires a comprehensive approach, and artificial intelligence could provide a feasible means of estimating HCC outcomes. This study was designed to assess the viability of a machine learning model to predict survival in HCC patients. Materials and Methods: HCC patient data with at least 5 years of follow-up were retrospectively reviewed. Patients with accessible data on the primary liver disease, tumor and laboratory values at the time of diagnosis, and length of survival were included. A gradient boosting machine learning algorithm was constructed to predict patient survival at 6 time points. Results: A total of 100 HCC patients (80% male) with a median overall survival of 43 months (range: 0.7–256 months) were included. The survival rate for 6, 12, 24, 36, 60, and 120 months was 88%, 81%, 67%, 60%, 40%, and 11%, respectively. The mean area under the curve of the model prediction was 0.92 (0.061) for >6 months, 0.81 (0.107) for >1 year, 0.78 (0.11) for >2 years, 0.81 (0.083) for >3 years, 0.82 (0.079) for >5 years, 0.81 (0.96) for >8 years, and 0.66 (0.14) for >10 years. Conclusion: The machine learning model successfully predicted short-and long-term survival of patients with HCC.