Earthquake prediction for the northwest of Turkey with machine learning methods Makine öğrenimi yöntemleri kullanılarak Türkiye’nin kuzeybatısı için deprem tahmini
Yerbilimleri/ Earth Sciences, cilt.44, sa.2, ss.166-178, 2023 (Scopus, TRDizin)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 44 Sayı: 2
- Basım Tarihi: 2023
- Doi Numarası: 10.17824/yerbilimleri.1325321
- Dergi Adı: Yerbilimleri/ Earth Sciences
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Scopus, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), Geobase, TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.166-178
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Earthquake prediction, Hypocenter depth, Hypocenter location, Machine learning, Northwest of Turkey
- Hacettepe Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Being able to predict earthquakes has been an important issue for human life and comfort. However, earthquakes with complex mechanisms are quite difficult to predict. While different methods were used to predict earthquakes in the past, these methods have recently been used to make earthquake predictions with the developments in artificial intelligence methods. In this study, the focal coordinates and focal depths of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6 and above, likely to occur in the northwestern region of Turkey, were tried to be estimated. This study used six different machine learning methods (Support Vector Machines, Gradient Boost, Elastic Net, Bayesian Ridge and XGBoost) and compared the prediction results. Results were evaluated with RMSE, MAE, and Adjusted R2 performance metrics. The estimation results show that earthquakes of 6 or more may occur in the future in the northwestern region of Turkey, within the borders of Bursa province, starting from the north of Lake Iznik and going westwards in Ekinli, northwest of İmralı island, north of Avşa island and northwest of Marmara island.