Research Information System
TURKISH JOURNAL OF ZOOLOGY, no.2, 2025 (SCI-Expanded)
The main objective of this study was to predict the ecological requirements of Alosimus marginicollis (Haag-Rutenberg, 1880), for which limited ecological information is available, and to predict possible suitable habitats under current conditions and different future scenarios. An ensemble model-based approach, combining multiple algorithms (GAM, GLM, MARS, MaxEnt), was used to predict suitable habitats for this species using bioclimatic, topographic and land cover variables. The models indicated that the elevation variable among the topography variables, BIO15 (precipitation seasonality) and BIO4 (temperature seasonality) among the bioclimatic variables, and the cropland variable (cultivated and managed vegetation cover) among the land cover variables are the most significant variables for this species. The models further indicated that the current suitable habitats for species are limited to the Anatolian Diagonal in the east, due to climatic effects. In the west, it is suggested that the optimal habitats for the species are limited between the coastal Aegean and inner Aegean and climatic factors may be a barrier for the species in this area. In future projections, a gradual habitat loss is predicted, and in the relatively optimistic scenario, this species may persist in some areas, whereas in the most pessimistic scenario, suitable habitats are predicted to vanish almost entirely.