The dynamics of fuel demand and illegal fuel activity in Turkey


Yalta A. T. , YALTA A. Y.

ENERGY ECONOMICS, vol.54, pp.144-158, 2016 (Journal Indexed in SSCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 54
  • Publication Date: 2016
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.11.026
  • Title of Journal : ENERGY ECONOMICS
  • Page Numbers: pp.144-158
  • Keywords: Energy demand, Gasoline, Diesel, Maximum entropy, Bootstrap, Turkey, ASYMMETRIC PRICE RESPONSES, ENERGY DEMAND, TIME-SERIES, GASOLINE, BOOTSTRAP, OECD

Abstract

We expose the dynamics of road fuel demand by employing maximum entropy resampling based interval estimates in a fixed width rolling window framework. Our approach facilitates using a uniform specification in a sequential procedure while also providing robust and efficient estimates that can evolve over time. Ours is also the first study to develop a method for estimating illegal fuel activity. To demonstrate our methodology, we use monthly data between 2003-2012 and focus on the demand for diesel and gasoline in Turkey. The results show estimated monthly illegal activity ranging between 5-23 million liters over the last six years. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.