Change points of real GDP per capita time series corresponding to the periods of industrial revolutions


TESTİK M. C. , Sarikulak O.

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, vol.170, 2021 (Journal Indexed in SSCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 170
  • Publication Date: 2021
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120911
  • Title of Journal : TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
  • Keywords: Industrial revolutions, Industry 4, 0, Cumulative sum change point detection, Gross domestic product, Autoregressive integrated moving average

Abstract

Industrial revolutions can be linked to fundamental technological inventions that have provided mankind with subsidiary and complementary developments. Breakthrough changes have occurred in energy sources, telecommunication technologies, transportation methods, and production systems during the periods covered by industrial revolutions. Altogether these changes have accelerated the march of economic progress resulting in social transformations. While economies of frontier countries benefitted vastly from such changes, others had delays in following the advances. Therefore, observed effects of industrial revolutions varied among countries. In this study, it is assumed that there are identifiable economic changes during industrial revolutions. Real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is used as an indicator to trace economic growth in the UK, the US, France, the Netherlands, Germany, and Turkey. The real GDP per capita time series of the countries mentioned are modelled by autoregressive integrated moving average models and a cumulative sum scheme is utilized to detect the change points in successive periods corresponding to industrial revolutions. Together with the levels of the real GDP per capita after a change, timings of the changes are compared for the countries studied. Results indicate that there are delays for some countries in benefiting from the prosperity offered by the developments.