Cost-benefit analysis of road-transport policy options to combat air pollution in Turkey

Kiziltan A., KIZILTAN M. , Aksoy S. , AYDINALP KÖKSAL M. , Tekeli S. E. , Duran N., ...More

ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY, 2022 (Journal Indexed in SCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Publication Date: 2022
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s10668-022-02504-2
  • Keywords: Cost-benefit analysis, Simulation method, Vehicle replacement, Turkey, VEHICLES, RETIREMENT, SUBSIDIES, MANDATE, IMPACT, SALES, CARS


Road-traffic-based air pollution accounts for one-third of the air pollution problem in Turkey. In order to combat this environmental issue and illustrate the possible direction of the road transport policy, five scenarios of withdrawing older vehicles from the fleet are analyzed using cost-benefit analysis (CBA) for 2020-2030. This article focuses on CBA's economic dimension, while the cost of carbon and health costs are included to capture the integrated societal CBA. The economic net benefit is calculated based on tax revenues and foreign trade of major road transport factors such as fuel, vehicles, and scrap metal. The findings indicate that all alternative scenarios compared to the business-as-usual scenario result in a higher net benefit, ranging from 69 to 274 billion PPP US $, and justify implementing road-transport policies consistent with sustainable development goals to combat air pollution and ensure human health. This paper provides extensive evidence that vehicle fleet renewal is beneficial from economic, environmental, and public health perspectives.