Exchange rate policy cycles in Turkish presidential elections

Akarsu M. Z., Secilmis E.

APPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS, 2025 (SSCI) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Publication Date: 2025
  • Doi Number: 10.1080/13504851.2025.2473663
  • Journal Name: APPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS
  • Journal Indexes: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, IBZ Online, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, ABI/INFORM, Business Source Elite, Business Source Premier, CAB Abstracts, EconLit, Geobase, Public Affairs Index, Veterinary Science Database, DIALNET
  • Hacettepe University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

This study examines the impact of Turkish presidential elections on exchange rate policies since the shift to direct elections in 2014. Using a Bayesian Structural Time Series model, we find consistent pre-election interventions stabilizing the Turkish Lira, followed by notable post-election depreciation. This pattern intensified in the 2023 cycle with a 20% post-election drop, indicating a strategy of short-term economic stability aimed at influencing voter perceptions. These findings contribute to understanding political exchange rate cycles, highlighting the electoral motivations behind currency management in Turkey.