Projecting the course of COVID-19 in Turkey: A probabilistic modeling approach

ACAR A. C. , ER A. G. , BURDUROĞLU H. C. , Sulku S. N. , AYDIN SON Y., AKIN L., ...More

TURKISH JOURNAL OF MEDICAL SCIENCES, vol.51, no.1, pp.16-27, 2021 (Peer-Reviewed Journal) identifier identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 51 Issue: 1
  • Publication Date: 2021
  • Doi Number: 10.3906/sag-2005-378
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded, Scopus, Academic Search Premier, CAB Abstracts, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Veterinary Science Database, TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Page Numbers: pp.16-27
  • Keywords: COVID-19, pandemic, epidemiology, Bayesian regression, Turkey


Background/aim: The COVID-19 pandemic originated in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and became one of the worst global health crises ever. While struggling with the unknown nature of this novel coronavirus, many researchers and groups attempted to project the progress of the pandemic using empirical or mechanistic models, each one having its drawbacks. The first confirmed cases were announced early in March, and since then, serious containment measures have taken place in Turkey.